Home Versus Away#
Home v. Away All Time#
Looking at all the available data since 1996, the shift between the home team versus the road team is roughly 4 points. This number depends on our comeback condition. Looking at max points down or more for the entire game, we see about a 3.5 point shift:
(Note, this is the same point shift 538 arrived at using their Elo rating system.)
Looking at the odds of coming back from a point deficit at the half, the chances of coming back from a 20 point deficit for the home team is about the same as the road team coming back from down 16, showing about a four point shift:
And, as expected, gets smaller as the amount of time dwindles:
Home v. Away Modern Era#
In recent years, this shift has lessened, showing greater parity between the home and the road team. Here, the shift is about 3 points or less rather than 4 (e.g. a home team down 20 points has about the same odds as a road team being down 17). And the shift is not as stable, with the home team advantage lessening for big comebacks.
Notably, the 1% chance of comeback is much closer recently: