How ‘unsafe’ have big leads become in the modern NBA?
March 26, 2025
Analysis#
Occurrence Frequencies of Points Scored, Points Down, and Garbage Time Games
How much more scoring is there recently? Plus, how often do we get garbage time games?
April 17, 2025
A single chart that captures the majority of a team’s comeback chances. Plus, how this single chart compares to ESPN’s real time probability tracker.
Playoffs: The Odds of Coming Back Or Closing It Out
Lots of playoff series statistics on just a few plots. Plus, a look at the occurrence rate of “garbage time” series.
April 28, 2025
A Rule Of Thumb That Actually Works If Your Thumb Is Good At Math
A mathematical formula that has stood up to time.
April 2, 2025
Regular Season Versus Playoff Comeback Chances
Do teams stop the comeback during the playoffs?
April 17, 2025
Do the Timberwolves Actually Give Up Big Leads?
I’m still not sure I believe what the data is telling me here.
March 26, 2025
Some Notable Record Games, Some Hidden
Some things that, technically, have never happened.
April 23, 2025
Methodology and Forming the Plot Trend Lines
How to fit normal statistical models to the comeback data.
Understanding and Using The Comeback Charts
The many ways to define a comeback. Also, you can click on the plots to get game data; on mobile, go full screen first.
Plots: Auto-Generated Collection Of Plots
An auto-generated page of comeback plots with varying conditions.
Using Claude Code to AI Auto-Generate This Site
Some quick notes on how I used Claude Code to put together the Javascript front end for this project.
March 26, 2025
A little bit about this project.