Regular Season vs. Playoffs#
Regular Season vs. Playoffs#
There does not appear to be a marked shift between regular season and playoff games:
The caveat here is that the playoff data is a bit “noisier” and the probability given a point deficit deviates from a normal distribution more often. On average, the trend lines are the same. Most likely, the difference is due to the smaller sample size of playoff games, but saying this with certainty would require a larger sample size or more analysis.
Overall, however, I think it can be said that the regular season and playoffs don’t show a marked point shift as seen when comparing comebacks for the home team versus the away team.
Looking at comeback changes versus points down at the half, we get:
And starting the 4th quarter:
And looking at the 5% chance line, whether regular season or playoffs, both curves are roughly equal to \(4 * \sqrt{t}\)